The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed the early arrival of the monsoon over Kerala and northeast India, marking the start of the rainy season. This year, the monsoon reached Kerala two days earlier than usual, with above-normal rainfall expected from June to September.
Uncommon Phenomenon of Monsoon
The simultaneous arrival of the monsoon over Kerala and northeast India is an uncommon phenomenon. Last time, it happened seven years ago on May 30, 2017. Although both Kerala and northeast India have been receiving pre-monsoon rains in the past few days, the Met department officially announced the monsoon’s onset only after it met all the necessary parameters.
IMD’s Assessment
“Southwest (summer) monsoon has set in over Kerala and advanced into most parts of northeast India today (May 30),” said IMD’s senior scientist R. K. Jenamani. The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by its onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterizing the transition from the hot and dry season to a rainy season. As it progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is gradually expected across the country.
Normal Monsoon Onset
Typically, the southwest monsoon sets in over Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of about seven days. It then arrives in the northeast a couple of days later and covers most of the northeastern states by June 5. The monsoon eventually covers the entire country by July 8. In Delhi-NCR, it usually arrives in the last week of June. IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of onset over Kerala since 2005, using an indigenously developed state-of-the-art statistical model with a model error of ±4 days.
Above-Normal Rainfall Expected
This year’s monsoon is predicted to be ‘above normal’ in terms of rainfall during the June-September season. The early onset over Kerala and northeast India is a promising sign for farmers, as it brings much-needed relief to parched lands and reservoirs. With the monsoon now progressing northward, we can look forward to cooler temperatures and rejuvenated landscapes across the country1.
As we welcome the monsoon, let’s prepare for the rhythm of raindrops, the lush greenery, and the promise of life that comes with this annual natural spectacle. 🌧️🌿🌦️
